Pretty startling headline from The Hill, scary story and yet SOP
for Putin and Russia. Written by a
former DIA officer and this author (formatted to fit the blog):
“War with Russia is not hypothetical and our
lumbering bureaucracy is unprepared for it”
Background on this
story: On June 23, a British Navy destroyer sailed close to Crimea, which
Russia considers its sovereign territory in the aftermath of the Ukrainian
peninsula’s annexation by Putin. The United States and NATO do not recognize
Crimea as Russian and claim the ship’s movements were in accordance with
international law. Moscow, however, views the incident as a violation of its
territorial waters.
The Russian government said its military fired a warning
shot to keep the British warship away, a claim that the Brits dispute. Moscow
also admonished the West that it will not issue any warning if it’s perceived sovereign
territory is breached in the future, implying that it will go straight for the
kill.
Historically speaking and not to be complacent: Moscow has shown its willingness to take high risks in situations that it considers as having high stakes.
Two horrible examples: (1) The Russians, and the Soviets
before that were blamed for shooting down Malaysian
MH-17 in 2014 (298 killed), and (2) Korean KAL-007 in
1983 (269 killed); both civilian airlines.
Putin was asked whether the June 23 incident brought the
world to the brink of a third world war. He said that it did not, but went on to
accuse the Americans and the British of “complex provocations.”
Putin asserts that the U.S. knows that it could not possibly win such a war. He is so confident about U.S. “unpreparedness to fight back” that he hypothesized that even if Russia sank the British warship it would go unanswered.
He also believes Russia can fight and win war with the U.S. on
Russia’s terms because the U.S. relies on low-tech in conflicts such as in Afghanistan
and Iraq. Thus, Putin believes Russia would win any war against the U.S. due to
its technology dominance.
My 2 Cents: A good article, and I would add that Putin is a highly experienced and shrewd old-time Russian intelligence officer who loves high stakes poker, and mostly he wins by bluffing and smirking at the players across the table.
He no more wants war
with the U.S. or any Western country any more than Kim, Jong-un in North Korea wants.
That is how both Putin and
Kim operate: They are blusterous bullies and always try to win, but only on their terms, and only always pushing to the limit of engagement — as brag and boast some more about
“winning.”
However, Putin and Kim are not totally
naïve nor stupid, either.
Consider this from the article – a few expert views and opinions and based on facts: Our government and U.S. corporations were caught off-guard by America’s adversaries’ willingness to attack our unsecured IT networks and their success in doing so. Our satellites are similarly defenseless.
That is what Putin emphasizes.
For two decades,
Washington has been admiring the ingenuity of Putin’s playbook, yet having done
little to protect the nation as a whole – examples:
1. Former CIA Director
Gen. Michael Hayden said that Russia’s intelligence operation targeting
the 2016 presidential election was the “most successful covert influence operation
in history.”
2. Former Director of
National Intelligence and former U.S. Sen. Dan Coates stated in 2018 that the warning
system was blinking red referring to the Russian threat.
3. Current FBI Director
Christopher Wray drew parallels between Russia’s cyber strikes and terrorist
attacks of 9/11 this past May, following Russia’s hacking of our meat and gas
structures with this statement when called on the average American to have a shared responsibility for
homeland defense against cyber-attacks saying:
“I hope the bureaucrats
don’t expect us to fend for ourselves when it comes to Putin’s Star Wars.”
Putin and Kim both know that any powerful engagement with the U.S. would wipe them out as well since there no such thing as a “small nuclear war” therefore, who wants total annihilation?
Certainly neither Putin nor Kim.
Thanks for stopping by.
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