Pretty scary headline here
from Business Insider:
“The
U.S. isn't prepared for a new, more infectious variant to be dominant by March –
even with vaccinations underway”
Key points:
1. The more
contagious possibly deadlier corona virus variant first found in
the UK could become dominant in the U.S. by March.
2. The U.S. might not finish vaccinating the most vulnerable
populations until April.
3. Relaxed restrictions may allow the variant to run rampant, leading to more hospitalizations and more deaths.
It took just three months for the more contagious
coronavirus variant known as B117 to become dominant in the UK. Scientists
forecast a similar fate in the U.S.
The first U.S. cases of B117 were confirmed in December, though the patients' lack of travel history indicates the strain was spreading earlier.
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC said recently the B117: “We are nowhere out of the woods. If we relax these mitigation
strategies with increasing transmissible variants out there, we could be in a
much more difficult spot. So what I would say is now is the time to not let up
our guard.”
Thankfully, both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines seem to be
effective against the variant, but most Americans haven't been vaccinated yet,
in short: “The US is now in a race between B117 and the pace of vaccinations,” wrote
Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
New B117 cases in the US could reach 400,000 per day by the end of April Shepherdson said and concluded: “The restrictions applied across the US right now, on average, are not tight enough to control B117.” Then he added: “…any spring surge in cases will eventually be crushed by vaccination; the potential for a delay in reopening, of two or three months, is very real.”
Indeed, public-health experts warn that the U.S. would have to
maintain - or perhaps tighten - lockdown restrictions to keep hospitalizations
and deaths due to B117 at a minimum. That may be especially true if, in
addition to being more transmissible, the variant is 30% to 70% deadlier than the original strain, as UK
scientists recently reported.
USA TODAY found that 29 states are currently
easing lockdown restrictions, while three: IA, FL, and MO have lifted
restrictions almost entirely.
Businesses are mostly open across 42 states, and 12 states
have no mask requirements at all, according to a New York Times analysis.
Only two states, VA and NC have stay-at-home orders in
place. That puts the U.S. in a precarious position from now until July, when
it's expected that every U.S. adult will have access to a coronavirus shot.
That milestone could arrive sooner if the FDA authorizes a
third coronavirus shot from Johnson & Johnson.
Dr. Cindy Prins, an epidemiologist at University of FL told Business
Insider: “My concern right now, because B117 is more transmissible, is that
feeling of people wanting to return to normal life and maybe go places and do
more things. That worries me, just because you're more likely to come into
contact with someone who's infected.”
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases, has suggested that the U.S. won't finish vaccinating its vulnerable populations – including
the elderly, essential workers, and those with preexisting medical conditions -
until April. By then, it is possible B117 will have been the dominant strain
for at least a month.
My 2 cents: This story
stands alone – those states and people not obeying the rules and 100% helping
combat his horrible pandemic as outlined above, will, sadly, in all probability
pay a heavy price.
Thanks for stopping by –
stay well and healthy.
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