Economy Very Excellent Now: Trump's Claim of Historical Record Not Quite Yet

Fist: Solidarity, Strength, Unity, Defiance or Resistance

(Which is it Mr. Trump)

Subject (CNBC via MSN): Jobs, the Stock Market, and the Fed – confusion as usual. 

Let me see if I have his straight. Examine three key points with me (FYI: I’m NOT an economist) to see what I mean:

#1: The economy added 224,000 jobs in June well above the 165,000 that Economists had forecast after May’s dismal job growth of only 75,000 (a gain of 60,000 jobs over Economists’ forecast – oops).

#2: How does the Market react? Today drops 150 points and was still in the red as of noon across the board. That is based on the strong job numbers, so why?

#3: Investors has hoped the Fed would lower rates more again why?.

Note: Last month, the Fed said it would “act as appropriate to maintain the current U.S. economic expansion,” which right now is heading to be the longest in history.

Good News: Treasury bond yields jumped on the new data, gold futures slid 1.5% to $1,399.50 per ounce, and the dollar rose against a basket of currencies, gaining 0.5%. 

Bad News: Investors were betting heavily on the Fed cutting rates later this month heading into today’s session, then the new higher job numbers tempered their expectations for aggressive monetary policy changes (not likely now).

My 2 cents on the B/L: The markets loves the lowest interest rates possible, with job numbers remaining steady (no up/down scenario). 

Why? Obviously to protect and expand their investments based on  projections that help expand their wealth, I guess (who wouldn’t). That is the balancing act they and the Fed play against each other, or so it seems to me, and with mixed signals, too.

And yes, Trump does get credit right now for an unemployment rate at a 17-year low; consumer and business confidence near record highs, the Stock Market regularly sets records. 

But, Keep in Mind (which Trump can’t): This current economic expansion began in June 2009 (CNN), and yes, under Barack Obama who inherited the 2007-2008 near total meltdown that Trump will not admit happened or Obama fixes, and that was 8 years 7 months ago. 

So, if this Trump continuation makes it to 10 years, it will be 100% the longest in U.S. history, but not right now as Trump always claims. 

Don’t be premature, just keep your fingers crossed. 

Thanks for stopping by.