Telling the country he is the best in history ever on the economy
(His cohorts in tow and on message)
READ THIS FIRST: Trump has lying even UNDER OATH SINCE 2007 – a dramatic article
that carefully outlines and explains who Donald J. Trump truly is – that is: A
lying conniving, bullying, harsh, name-calling man who lies out of habit probably
his whole life and this is a first for any president in our entire history
WASHINGTON (AP) — Trump falsely claimed last week that he had pulled
off “an economic turnaround of historic proportions.” Speaking at the White
House after the government reported that the economy grew at an annual rate of
4.1 percent in the second quarter, he declared that the gains were sustainable
and would only accelerate. Few economists outside the administration agree with
this claim. His remarks followed events Thursday in Iowa and Illinois, where: (1)
he falsely repeated a claim that the U.S. economy is the best “we’ve ever had”
and (2) incorrectly asserted that Canada’s trade market is “totally closed.”
A look at those claims:
TRUMP: “We’ve
accomplished an economic turnaround of historic proportions.”
THE FACTS:
Trump didn’t inherit a fixer-upper economy. The U.S. economy just entered its
10th year of growth, a recovery that began under President Barack Obama, who
inherited the Great Recession. The data show that the falling unemployment rate
and gains in home values reflect the duration of the recovery, rather than any
major changes made since 2017 by the Trump administration.
While Trump praised the 4.1
percent annual growth rate in the second quarter, it exceeded that level four
times during the Obama presidency. But quarterly figures are volatile and
strength in one quarter can be reversed in the next. While Obama never achieved
the 3 percent annual growth that Trump hopes to see, he came close. The economy
grew 2.9 percent in 2015.
The economy faces two
significant structural drags that could keep growth closer to 2 percent than 3
percent: an aging population, which means fewer people are working and more are
retired, and weak productivity growth, which means that those who are working
aren’t increasing their output as quickly as in the past. Both of those factors
are largely beyond Trump’s control.
======================================================
TRUMP: “One of the
biggest wins in the report, and it is, indeed a big one, is that the trade
deficit — very dear to my heart because we’ve been ripped off by the world —
has dropped.”
THE FACTS:
Trump is correct that a lower trade deficit helped growth in the April-June
quarter, but it’s not necessarily for a positive reason. He has been floating
plans to slap import taxes on hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign goods,
which has led to the risk of retaliatory tariffs by foreign companies on U.S.
goods. His threats of an escalating trade war led to many companies to
increasing their levels of trade before any tariffs hit, causing the
temporary boost in exports being celebrated by Trump.
======================================================
TRUMP: “We’re having the
best economy we’ve ever had in the history of our country.” (Speech remarks in
Granite City, IL).
THE FACTS:
Even allowing for Trump’s tendency to exaggerate, this overstates things. The
unemployment rate is near a 40-year low and growth is solid, but by many
measures the current economy trails other periods in U.S. history.
Average hourly pay, before
adjusting for inflation, is rising at about a 2.5 percent annual rate, below
the 4 percent level reached in the late 1990s when the unemployment rate was as
low as it is now. Pay was growing even faster in the late 1960s, when the
jobless rate remained below 4 percent for nearly four years. And economic
growth topped 4 percent for three full years from 1998 through 2000, an annual
rate it hasn’t touched since.
======================================================
TRUMP: “The Canadians,
you have a totally closed market ... they have a 375 percent tax on dairy
products, other than that it’s wonderful to deal. And we have a very big
deficit with Canada, a trade deficit.” (Speech remarks in Peosta, IA).
THE FACTS:
No, Canada is not totally closed. Because of NAFTA, Canada’s market is almost
totally open to the United States. Each country has a few products that are
still largely protected, such as dairy in Canada and sugar in the United
States. Trump also repeated that the U.S. had a trade deficit with Canada. That
is for only goods. When all is included we have a $2.8 billion surplus with Canada.
FYI: Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial, said the results are gains from trade in the second quarter but probably will not be repeated.
My 2 cents: The worst part of all this is simple:
Thanks for stopping by.
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