Started With High Hopes: Ended With No There, There
(Trump Sustains His Flop)
Same Issue Different Partners: Maybe There, There
(Time will tell)
Update facts about Trump’s economy that he cannot deny:
Introduction and this reminder: The impact of Trump and GOP’s 2017 tax cut and his on-going
trade war policies now run amok which is a
slowing economy opposite of
what Trump has bragged about and promised.
Today’s story from here along
with economic experts who are a lot more honest and trustworthy than Trump and
his advisors.
The economic recovery this
month (July) became the longest in U.S. history, one month longer than the
10-year expansion of the 1990’s.
However, the 2.3% average
annual growth rate is the weakest for any recovery in the post-World War II
period.
Most economists say the tepid
pace is reflected by severity of the 2007-2009 recession as well as such
long-term trends as the retirements of the baby boomers and slowing worker
productivity.
From an expert in these
things, Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, said he foresees an annual
GDP growth this year of 2.5%. That is down from 2.9% last year, before expected
to slow downward even further to 1.7% in 2020.
Zandi further said: “The
benefits of the 2017 tax cuts are largely played out. I think going forward
that recession risks are high, especially if something major goes off the rails
such as a resurgence of the trade war, or a bad exit by Britain from the
European Union.”
Related story coverage from sources:
(I Note:
Will Trump brag about all this, or simply blame others for his economic choices
and policies? His “Art of the Con” still strong, isn’t it)?
My original post starts from here.
Subject: “FLASHBACK TO TRUMP-GOP’S TAX CUT BS”
Just before Congress passed
the December 2017 Trump-GOP “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” (without any DEM votes), Trump proclaimed publicly:
“It’ll be fantastic for the middle-income people and for jobs, most of
all ... I think we could go to 4%, 5% or
even 6% [GDP growth], ultimately. We are back. We are really going to start to rock.”
Then, a mere one year later,
it was clear that the tax cuts boosted the GDP and jobs a bit — and just for one year, and only for the very top. The
only thing that “rocked” were corporate profits and the stock market. Now, we’re
facing trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see.
A poll of more than 100
economists employed by major firms in corporate America (hardly DEM/Leftists) guided by facts and hard data, not supply-side
delusions revealed from 84% of those economists who reported that in the year
since the bill was signed, they “have not
caused their firms to change hiring or investment plans.”
UPDATE HERE FROM THE NY TIMES (via MSN):
The Trump administration pushed a
$1.5 trillion tax cut through Congress in 2017 on the promise that it would
spark sustained economic growth. While the tax cuts have goosed the economy in
the short term, officials now concede they will not be enough to deliver the 3
percent annual growth the president promised over the long term.
To produce that average
growth rate for the next decade, White House forecasters say, the American
economy would need (1) additional rollbacks in labor regulations, (2) a $1
trillion infrastructure plan, and (3) another round of tax cuts.
Getting all those policies implemented
would be unlikely, given a divided Congress, and a ballooning federal deficit,
which could limit lawmakers’ appetite to spend money on a new tax cut or
infrastructure plan.
But without those additional
steps, Trump’s economic team predicts in just-released report that growth would
slow to about 2 percent a year by 2026. Ironically, that is the same year when
many of the individual tax cuts included in that 2017 law are set to expire
thus essentially producing a tax increase for millions of Americans.
Most forecasters project
economic growth of about 2 percent in the medium and long run, but that rate
would fall far short of the heady promises that Trump made about his ability to
fuel the American economy. Trump predicted growth of as much as 5 percent, but
his advisers routinely promote 3 percent as the new normal.
Growth has averaged
just over 2 percent back from 2010, the first full year after the 2007-2008 Great
Recession ended, right through 2016, when Trump was elected. Even if all the
new measures were adopted, growth would slow over time, but it would still
stand at 2.8 percent at the end of the decade, the White House forecasters say.
Story continues at story’s link above.
As economists projected, the
tax cuts did boost GDP a bit: When 2018’s final numbers are in, GDP probably
will have grown 2.9-3%. That’s a nice jump from 2.2% in 2017 and the anemic
1.5% in 2016, the year Trump was elected. But it will be virtually identical
with the 2.9% GDP growth recorded in 2015, the highest of the Obama years.
Since economists expect U.S. GDP growth to slow to the mid-2% level this year —
and some
are even predicting a recession — that may turn out to be the peak of the
Trump years, too.
Job growth has picked up,
having risen by 2.6 million in 2018, vs. a gain of 2.2 million in 2017. It’s
unclear how much of that can be attributed to the tax cut, since health care
and professional and business services set the pace again, as they have for the
past 30 years.
My 2 cents based and the
above sound expert summary:
The Trump-GOP tax cut didn’t boost economic
growth, start capital spending boom, increase a manufacturing renaissance, bring
overseas profits back home, had no little discernible wage increases.
However, his economic policy and his “yuge tax cut” did stick it to average people leaving us with the huge
tax bill for a very, very long time. So, brag about that Mr. Trump. What, a
loss of words – that is highly unlikely. Stay tuned.
Thanks for stopping by.
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