"Only I Can Can Solve the Nuclear Weapons Problem So Leave Me Alone" /s/ Trump

Note: Iran is NOT on this Inventory List

(Let's make sure no more are added)

Nuclear Deal Players: Smiley and Grumpy

2nd update for the following story (January 10, 2018) more below) – this update from The AP via MSN.

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is expected this week to extend relief from economic sanctions to Iran as part of the nuclear deal, citing progress in amending U.S. legislation that governs Washington's participation in the landmark accord, according to U.S. officials and others familiar with the administration's deliberations.

But Trump is likely to pair his decision to renew the concessions to Tehran with new, targeted sanctions on Iranian businesses and people, the six people briefed on the matter said. The restrictions could hit some firms and individuals whose sanctions were scrapped under the 2015 nuclear agreement, a decision that could test Tehran's willingness to abide by its side of the bargain.

Story continues at the link above.

The original post and 1st update starts below. 

(I note: Actually this is good news - perhaps he is listening more to Tillerson and Mattis and McMaster, but who knows in the long run).

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Updated – from AFP here via MSN with this Headlines:

Iran warns world to prepare for U.S. nuke deal withdrawal

Iran warned the world to prepare for the possible withdrawal of the United States from the landmark nuclear deal agreed in 2015, saying in part:

“The international community must be prepared for the US possibly pulling out of the JCPOA,” says Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

Then Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi said: “Our region will not become a safer region without the agreement.”

Then an Iranian official statement said: “A withdrawal by the US will lead to an appropriate and heavy response. The US administration will definitely regret it.”

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Recall that Iran signed the accord in 2015 with six world powers (US, UK, France, German, China, and Russia) agreeing to curb its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of many international sanctions.

Trump openly despises the deal, which is a central foreign policy achievement of his predecessor Barack Obama, but Trump has so far continued to waive the nuclear-related sanctions at regular intervals as required to stay in compliance.

The next deadline for Trump to waive sanctions and keep them in place is Friday, Janaury 12.

Review to this point: Trump has announced a combative new strategy toward Iran today ending the United States' adherence to his predecessor's nuclear deal but stopping short, for now, of scrapping the agreement entirely.

The move doesn't amount to ripping up the Iran nuclear accord as he promised to do as a candidate. Instead, Trump will foist the agreement upon Congress, who now have 60 days to determine a path forward. Republicans have in the recent past shown few signs they're willing to take up another divisive issue. If lawmakers were to decide to impose new punitive economic sanctions on Iran, the deal would most likely fall apart. Instead, Trump wants Congress to adopt new measures to keep the deal intact spelling out new parameters for the U.S. to impose new sanctions if Iran violate its agreements. 

(My Note FYI: Sufficient measures are in the agreement now; Congress knows it since they passed the agreement; so new ones not needed; Trump is full of it).

The Lead-in: Trump has called the nuclear deal “terrible and the worst deal ever negotiated.” However, facts don’t match Trump’s hype – a few examples:

1.  Secretary of Defense James Mattis has testified before Congress that the deal is in America's best national security interest to remain in it.

2.  The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) keeps repeatedly finding that Iran is complying with the deal as stipulated and agreed upon.

3.  Plus, the other signers: The UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia all say Iran is complying and that it should not be discarded in any way. 

Of course, Iran operates in other ways outside of the nuclear deal that are inimical to American interests (i.e., interests in other countries like by propping up the al-Assad regime in Syria and supplying weapons to the Houthi rebels in Yemen). But those are different issues than nuclear weapons development and production and deployment.

Note: The current nuclear agreement was not meant to fix Iran's regional meddling, irritating as that is. It was to stop nuclear weapons development and testing – by any standard a smart move – we need fewer NOT more nukes on the world stage.

So, what if Trump were to get his way? 

Just ponder these 3 possibilities – none of which are very good in reality.

1. The agreement’s goal is to ensure that Iran doesn't acquire nuclear weapons, which would then set off a regional nuclear arms race in the ME where Saudi Arabia would quickly follow suit since they are an arch-rival of Iran.

2. Iran armed with nuclear weapons could be worse than a non-nuclear-armed Iran.

3. The menace from North Korea under Dictator Kim, Jong-Un, whose antics on the world stage only get attention because he has nukes and without nukes would get worse.

My 2 Cents: Just because Trump says it’s bad and that he does not like it does not and cannot erase the facts and truth and it is hard to make any case that the deal isn't working, except in his mind –so why tear up good valid weapons development agreement that prevents more nukes on the world stage EXCEPT for Trump’s personal political enjoyment and that of his rabid dog cheering crowds. His warped and insane view of the deal despite world opinion otherwise is troubling.

So, all the double talk, back peddling, tap-dancing, or any other cliché you choose, the fact remains and cannot be disputed and that is: Donald J. Trump is truly a “Con Man” and a poor one at that, except in his own mind.

As stated above, he will not abandon the deal, or decertify Iranian compliance – instead, he will tell Congress to write new rules in case Iran reneges on the deal so he can take action in the future, and as stated above: The current agreement already has that kind of provision and that’s why the UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China all say Iran is in compliance. Trump is still standing alone.

So, Trump can try to tear up and get a “deal” – but it’s uphill like “repeal and replace” Obama-care.

Trump could try to unilaterally impose new sanctions on Iran – worldwide resistance is apt to follow and even from those who signed the agreement and the UK, France, and German are our close allies – Russia and China not so much.

However, a “deal” by Trump probably would not be nearly as effective as the previous (Obama-led) US deal with sanctions that involved many other countries and forced Iran to the negotiating table to ink the nuclear deal.

Why not? A Trump deal most likely would not have the support of other major Western powers to sanction Iran now say that Iran is in compliance.

Also, there is the inconvenient fact that Iran will not renegotiate a new nuclear agreement. Similarly, the UK, France, Germany, and Russia, which also helped negotiate the present deal alongside the United States and China, have made it clear that they want the deal to remain in place – not a “new” one.

B/L: Trump ever the showman, causes turmoil and chaos to stay in the limelight and then gets “a deal of any kind,” claims victory and disputes everyone saying otherwise as he demands his minions hit the media circuits praising him and keeping him happy. 

Finally this short message for Trump and those who follow his illogic on this issue:

Stay tuned to his critical issue and thanks for stopping by.