Key Leaders: Moon Jae-in; Kim Jung-un; Donald J. Trump
Convoy from Seoul to Pyongyang via Paju City
(My Translation at top; English vs. Korean syntax)
Paju is only a few miles south of the DMZ
(Most-northern and largest province of Gyeonggi-do)
Possible historical news from Korean peninsula -
Even so, Trump hailed it as only “possible
progress” about this announcement that North and South Korea are talking - then just
hours afterward Seoul said North Korea is willing to talk to the United States
about giving up its nuclear program, then Trump tweeted:
Possible progress being made in talks with North
Korea. For the first time in many years, a serious effort is being made by all
parties concerned. The World is watching and waiting! May be false hope, but
the U.S. is ready to go hard in either direction!
Even
with initial good news (I have always said
that talking does not hurt) Trump has to tweet something nasty to spoil the
moment.
North
Korean leader Kim Jong-Un has also agreed to refrain from conducting nuclear
and missile tests while engaging in dialogue with the United States said Seoul national
security chief Chung Eui-yong said after returning from talks with Kim.
Chung went
on to say that Pyongyang expressed a willingness to talk to the United States “in
an open-ended dialogue to discuss the issue of denuclearization and to normalize
relations with North Korea.”
Next
move: U.S. needs to send rational knowledgeable people to engage NK along with Seoul
and set up a series of meeting to solve that lingering and dangerous problem on
the Korean peninsula – which is long, long overdue.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEOUL,
South Korea — North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, has told South Korean envoys
that he is willing to begin negotiations with the United States on abandoning
its nuclear weapons and that it would suspend all nuclear and missile tests
while engaged in such talks, South Korean officials said on Tuesday. Trump
reacted with guarded optimism (his tweet
above) to the news, which potentially represented a major defusing of one
of the world’s most tense confrontations.
During
the envoys’ two-day visit to Pyongyang, the
North’s capital, which ended on Tuesday, the two Koreas also agreed to hold a
summit meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jung-un and ROK President Moon
Jae-in somewhere on the countries’ border (the DMZ) in late April. President Moon’s
statement in part:
“The North expressed its willingness to hold a heartfelt dialogue with
the United States on the issues of denuclearization and normalizing relations
with the United States. It made it clear that while dialogue is continuing, it
will not attempt any strategic provocations, such as nuclear and ballistic
missile tests. The North Korean side clearly stated its willingness to
denuclearize. The statement said. “It made it clear that it would have no
reason to keep nuclear weapons if the military threat to the North was
eliminated and its security guaranteed.”
If the statement is corroborated by North Korea, it would be the first time Kim Jung-Un as indicated that his government is willing to discuss giving up nuclear weapons in return for security guarantees from the United States. Until now, North Korea has said its nuclear weapons were not for bargaining away.
The
cautious American reaction partly reflected a history of suspicion toward the
motives of North Korea, which has remained an enemy of the United States since
the 1950-53 Korean War.
A
pattern of what American officials have described as North Korean duplicity in
previous talks has repeated itself, with modest variations, during the Clinton,
George W. Bush, and Obama administrations. In January 2009, Defense Secretary
Robert M. Gates, who had served under both Mr. Bush and Mr. Obama, summarized
the American skepticism about North Korea with an oft-repeated line: “I’m tired
of buying the same horse twice.”
The
South Korean statement said the two Koreas would begin working-level
discussions to prepare for the summit meeting, to be held in the Peace House, a
South Korean building in Panmunjom, the so-called truce village that straddles
the border.
Before Mr. Kim and Mr. Moon meet, the countries will install, for
the first time, a hotline by which the leaders can talk on the phone directly,
the statement said.
The
statement gave no indication that North Korea would start dismantling nuclear
or missile programs anytime soon. Nonetheless, the reported agreements
represented major progress in Mr. Moon’s efforts to improve relations with
North Korea. Those efforts advanced considerably during the recent Winter
Olympics in Pyeong-chang, South Korea, to which Mr. Kim sent athletes,
entertainers and political delegations that included his sister.
The
top South Korean envoys who returned from North Korea on Tuesday — Mr. Moon’s
national security adviser, Chung Eui-yong, and the director of the South’s
National Intelligence Service, Suh Hoon — are expected to be dispatched to
Washington this week to brief the Trump administration on their discussions
with Kim Jung-un.
Adviser Chung told reporters in Seoul that Kim Jung-un had been unexpectedly flexible. He
said the delegation had expected him to insist that the South and the United
States not hold their annual joint military exercises, which were suspended for
the Olympics, and: “Kim Jong-un simply said he could understand why the joint
exercises must resume in April on the same scale as before. The North expressed
its willingness to hold a heartfelt dialogue with the United States on the
issues of denuclearization and normalizing relations with the United States. It
made it clear that while dialogue is continuing, it will not attempt any
strategic provocations, such as nuclear and ballistic missile tests.” He also
said he “…expected them to be readjusted if the situation on the Korean
Peninsula stabilizes in the future.”
Mr.
Chung said the South Koreans believed that their agreements with North Korea
would be enough to start a dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang. He also
said he was carrying additional messages from Mr. Kim to the Trump administration
that he could not reveal and he concluded:
“There was no
other specific demand from North Korea in returning to dialogue. They only said
they wanted to be treated like a serious dialogue partner.”
For
Mr. Trump, the overture by North Korea sets in motion a challenging phase that
will call on the United States to exercise diplomatic muscles after a long
stretch in which the White House relied on economic pressure, backed by threats
of military force, to deal with the North.
That challenge is also compounded
because the State Department’s veteran North Korea negotiator, Joe Yun,
recently announced his retirement from the Foreign Service and another
experienced negotiator, Victor Cha, was recently sidelined when the White House
decided not to move ahead with his nomination as ambassador to South Korea.
Administration
officials are deeply wary of being drawn into a negotiation in which the United
States makes concessions — on issues like military exercises or shipments of
medical and food aid — only to see the North Koreans renege on their
commitments later.
Trump
said at the UN the U.S. could talk
with North Korea, but “only under
the right conditions.” American officials have repeatedly said they can start
negotiations with the North only if it agrees to discuss denuclearizing. They
have also insisted that the North first take some actions that would convince
them of its sincerity.
Defense
Minister Itsunori Onodera of Japan, which has steadfastly supported the Trump
administration’s tough approach to sanctions against North Korea, struck a note
of caution about Pyongyang’s interest in negotiations saying:
“While talking about nuclear abandonment several times, it
turned out that North Korea didn’t halt its nuclear development in the past. We
need to carefully assess if this North and South dialogue will really lead to
the abandonment of nuclear and missile development.”
China,
which has pushed for direct talks between Pyongyang and Washington for many
months, had no immediate reaction to the South Korean statement. One Chinese
expert on North Korea characterized Pyongyang’s reported offer as “concessions that
are dramatic and significant. It will be
hard for the U.S. government to resist,” said the expert, Cheng Xiaohe,
of Renmin University in Beijing.
But
Evans J. R. Revere, a former State Department official who was involved in
previous negotiations with North Korea, was less impressed. He said the formula
of denuclearization for security guarantees had “been the basis of several sets
of talks” between the two countries in the past, adding: “The U.S. has actually
provided security guarantees to North Korea, including in writing by President
Clinton. Such guarantees have never been adequate or acceptable to the North
Koreans, just as the U.S. provision of alternative energy sources, food and
other assistance has never proved adequate.”
He
also noted that the moratorium on nuclear and missile tests offered by the
North would not prevent Pyongyang from continuing to build its nuclear arsenal,
including by producing fissile material for nuclear weapons.
Even
so, Mr. Revere said the Trump administration would be hard-pressed to reject
the North’s proposal without making it appear that Washington — not Pyongyang —
was the problem, concluding: “With these developments, the door seems wide open
to a U.S.-North Korea exploratory conversation if both sides want one. The
North went to considerable lengths to meet the American demand that dialogue had
to be about denuclearization.”
The
10 members of the delegation Mr. Moon sent to the North were the first South
Korean officials to meet Mr. Kim since he took power six years ago. They were
also the first outside officials to directly hear Mr. Kim explain his
intentions regarding his country’s nuclear weapons programs.
Mr.
Kim, 34, has accelerated the North’s nuclear and missile tests since inheriting
power after his father, Kim Jong-il, died in 2011. Mr. Moon spent most of the
past year helplessly watching the Korean Peninsula edge toward possible
war as the North test-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles and
conducted its most powerful nuclear test yet, while Mr. Trump threatened to rain down “fire and fury” on
North Korea in a White House rant.
After
launching an intercontinental ballistic missile in November, Mr. Kim claimed to
have a “nuclear button” on his desk with which he could fire missiles capable
of reaching the mainland United States. American officials say Mr. Kim is
getting dangerously close to being able to strike the United States with
nuclear-tipped missiles.
But
Mr. Kim suddenly shifted his tone on New Year’s Day,
using an annual speech to propose sending a delegation to the Olympics. During
the Games last month, his sister, Kim Yo-jong, hand-delivered his proposal for
a summit meeting with Mr. Moon.
The
South Korean leader hoped to use the thaw surrounding the Olympics to improve
inter-Korean ties and to steer the United States and North Korea away from what
he called a collision course. Analysts say Mr. Kim’s sudden overture for
dialogue is driven at least in part by his desire to weaken sanctions that have begun biting his isolated country,
as well as to stave off Washington’s threat to use military force.
Related:
U.S. skeptics pop out – here example from
the Washington Post.
I note: Sanctions apparently do work, but we must keep in mind that
they mostly hurt people not in power, i.e., the poo and innocent civilians whom
target country leaders either don’t care about or don’ need to stay in power –
like in Russia, North Korea, China, a few other counties run by basically one
man – which Trump thinks we might try that one day ourselves (his statement
about Chinese President Xi now being allowed to say in office for life if he
chooses – Trump likes that kind of leader and power apparently – a statement
drew laughter during a Trump speech – hey, who’s laughing seriously Trump would
love that set up).
The U.S. must remain firm, yet take Kim Jung-un at his word until proven otherwise ... it would be foolish for Trump to continue to play hardball and via tweets without some smart and diplomatic strategy in place... is Trump capable of that “Art of the Deal” — I hardly think so,
Thus it is critical that those around him had better advise him as hard as possible with level heads like SOS Rex Tillerson seems to have lately, otherwise who knows what Trump would do in a one-sided deal he wants then blame everyone else later for any failure.
That would not be pretty in end I assure you.
So, yes, we need to talk to North Korea and seriously, firm and with a single purpose:
no more nukes and peaceful reunification of that peninsula – which will take
time – but which is better than all out nuclear war – which Trump has never
said he wants to avoid – that is odd to say the least.
So, stay tuned and thanks for stopping by.
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